Wisconsin, classified as a Rust Belt state, exhibits distinct characteristics that set it apart from its counterparts like Pennsylvania and Michigan. Outside of Milwaukee, the state is predominantly rural and features a small-town demographic. In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden secured victory in Wisconsin, while Donald Trump had previously won the state in 2016. The outcome of the 2024 election will largely hinge on the political leanings of the Badger State.
My familiarity with Wisconsin is rooted in my upbringing near the Mississippi River, where I spent considerable time fishing and exploring its landscapes. My first wife hailed from Eau Claire, a small town in the west-central region of the state. Wisconsin embodies the essence of the Midwest and is currently a focal point for both presidential campaigns. Additionally, the state is witnessing a competitive Senate race, with incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin facing Republican challenger Eric Hovde.
What to Look For - POTUS
Wisconsin will allocate 10 electoral votes in the upcoming presidential election. The state is currently a focal point in the electoral landscape, with the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average indicating a very close race. Kamala Harris holds a slight lead of 0.4 points, which falls within the margin of error for most polls. The latest survey from The Hill/Emerson, conducted from October 24 to October 29, shows the race as a dead heat, raising questions about the reliability of polling models since previous elections. Notably, Donald Trump outperformed expectations in Wisconsin during the 2016 and 2020 elections, despite ultimately losing the state to Joe Biden in 2020.
Trump's chances in Wisconsin may be more favorable than anticipated. The demographic composition of the state, which is predominantly white and has a significant rural population, tends to lean more conservative compared to other regions in the Rust Belt. Additionally, there appears to be a strong enthusiasm among right-leaning voters this election cycle. Should Trump secure a victory in Wisconsin, it could signal a broader resurgence for him across the Rust Belt, potentially paving the way for his return to the presidency.
Key areas to monitor for Democratic voter turnout include Madison and Milwaukee, both of which are urban centers and strongholds for the Democratic Party. Conversely, three Republican-leaning counties—Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington—are also critical to observe. Trump won these counties decisively in 2020, but they are situated around Milwaukee and may be shifting towards the left in this election cycle.
What to Look For - Senate
The Wisconsin Senate race presents a significant challenge for the GOP candidate. Current RCP averages indicate that Democrat Tammy Baldwin is ahead of Republican Eric Hovde by nearly two points, and recent trends suggest that Baldwin has either maintained or slightly increased her lead. The advantage of incumbency remains a formidable obstacle. The outcome will largely hinge on the extent of Donald Trump's influence and how his voter support impacts other races on the ballot.
When Will We Know?
Wisconsin law mandates that ballots be counted on election day, with the exception of provisional and overseas ballots. Results are expected to emerge promptly following the 9:00 PM (Eastern) poll closures; however, it is crucial to recognize that smaller, rural counties generally report their results more swiftly than urban areas that lean Democratic. Consequently, initial insights into the outcomes of either contest may be delayed, and in the event of a close race for the presidency or Senate, definitive results may not be available until after Election Day.
Legal Challenges
On Monday, the Republican National Committee filed a lawsuit against the Milwaukee Elections Commission regarding a proposal to restrict the number of poll watchers in specific districts.
Wisconsin plays a crucial role as a battleground state in the current presidential election, necessitating careful examination of polling locations and ballot tallies to uphold transparency and election integrity. A significant issue has emerged in Milwaukee, where, on the eve of the general election, the Republican National Committee disclosed via a mass email that they are initiating legal action against the Milwaukee Elections Commission regarding a strategy to restrict the number of poll watchers in specific districts.
As of now, no decision has been reached regarding this lawsuit; we will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as developments occur.
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